Track errors have gone down over the last 10 years, and forecasts have gotten better as well. The cone encapsulates 66 percent of the historical forecast track errors and does not represent where impacts like surge, wind, flooding or tornadoes will be felt.įor the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, the NHC will use the average track error for the 2012-2016 hurricane seasons. (MORE: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast) The first of these changes is something that happens every year, and the size of the cone will be set for the entire hurricane season no matter the size of the storm is or how strong it may be. Wrapped into one graphic – a less neon graphic than in years past – the "cone of uncertainty" underwent its annual resizing. Three of these changes were debuted this week for Arlene. In March, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) announced five changes to how forecasts and awareness products are issued, and this early tropical storm caused the NHC to flip the switch and issue some of those products. Tropical Storm Arlene provided the first, albeit early, look at the National Hurricane Center's new suite of tropical forecast products.
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